Keystone XL Pipeline: Trump Pushes to Revive the Pipeline Amid Political Tensions and Regulatory Hurdles

Amid rising tensions between Canada and the United States, President Donald Trump has taken to social media to advocate for the resurrection of the Keystone XL Pipeline. This historically contentious project would see an oil pipeline traversing international borders from Alberta to oil refineries across the U.S. to the Gulf Coast and Midwest regions. 

In a TruthSocial post on February 25th, 2025, President Trump encouraged the pipeline to be built “NOW,” promising streamlined approvals and an “almost immediate start” to construction. This statement echoes the sentiments of his inauguration day speech, in which he declared an “energy emergency” and assured Americans that his incoming administration would “drill, baby, drill.” 

The Keystone XL Pipeline, first commissioned in 2010 by TransCanada Energy, has had an extremely tumultuous history over the last several presidential administrations. In 2015, the Obama Administration rejected the Pipeline, citing environmental concerns and a commitment to tackling climate change as grounds for rejection. This occurred shortly before the beginning of Trump’s first term in the White House, which saw Trump entering office with a promise to restore the project. He succeeded in this regard, and the State Department followed his lead on the topic, approving TransCanada’s permit for construction. Of course, this approval was swiftly blocked by the subsequent Biden Administration, as President Biden signed Executive Order 13990, effectively revoking TransCanada pipeline permits. The most recent decision in this back-and-forth saw Trump rescinding Executive Order 13990 upon his return to office, potentially opening the door for the project to proceed. 

Despite Trump’s statement, the project may not be actualized. The project's success depends upon the parties involved, such as TransCanada and the Government of Alberta, and their actions regarding new permits. Speaking on the subject, a former executive with TransCanada, Dennis McConaghy said it would be hard for energy companies to rationalize this project given the risks of denied permits. Given the project’s turbulent history, it is no surprise that TransCanada is not rushing to begin construction following the President’s recent affirmations. A spokeswoman for South Bow Corp., a spin-off from TransCanada, has commented on Trump’s latest statements, saying that the corporation has “moved on” from the Keystone XL expansion project. This leaves the project at a standstill, and Canadian politicians have been varied in their responses. 

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who has been outspoken about general support for the Trump administration, took to social media on Tuesday to voice support for the revival of the pipeline, saying “that project should have never been cancelled.” Similar sentiments were echoed by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, who said that all pipeline permits for projects going east, south, and west from the province should be considered pre-approved. However, this support is not broad across Canada. 

The pipeline has been opposed by Indigenous groups in Canada for over ten years. This support is met by Indigenous groups across the border, like the Rosebud Sioux Tribe, who sued the Trump Administration regarding the pipeline permitting process that took place in his first term. In Canada, Indigenous groups have partnered with climate activists to fight against the pipeline, often staging protests and similar political demonstrations to voice their outrage against the project. 

Generally speaking, anti-pipeline coalitions in Canada have found increased support in politicians turning against the pipeline due to recent tensions between Canada and the U.S. Efforts to revive the pipeline have come at a time of intense political tensions between Canada and the U.S., linked to Trump’s insistent threats of Canada becoming the “51st State.” In this light, it is unsurprising that Canadian politicians have responded to pipeline-related announcements with little enthusiasm. Canada’s Natural Resources Minister, Jonathan Wilkinson, has called Trump’s enthusiasm about the pipeline “difficult to understand” in light of tariff threats on Canadian products, including energy. 

Situating the pipeline within Canada’s current pipeline policies helps highlight the obstacles to the project. In Canada, the oil and gas industry is heavily regulated under the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), formerly known as the National Energy Board. Regarding pipelines, the CER polices federally-regulated pipelines with the Canadian Energy Regulator Act. This legal framework mandates strict programs related to safety management, environmental protection, emergency management, third-party crossing, public awareness, and integrity management. The CER also manages the industry through the Impact Assessment Act, and the Pipeline Safety Act. These Acts dictate the required practices for federally-regulated pipelines in Canada, enshrining the polluter-pays principle into law. That is to say, pipeline operators would be held liable for financial damages related to pollution or environmental damage caused by a pipeline incident. As a federally-regulated project, the Keystone XL Pipeline would be required to comply with the standards in these policies, no doubt extending the timeline for approval. This lengthy review process, led by the CER, would likely extend beyond President Trump’s current term. If the history of the pipeline gives us any information, it is possible that the following administration may terminate the project, thus continuing the cycle of approval and discontinuation. 

In this regard, the Keystone XL Pipeline's future remains unclear. While the Trump Administration and its allies in Canada may continue to argue the need for extensive oil drilling, the project is likely a non-starter in the current political climate.