The Consequences of China’s One Child Policy

“Chinese children, Lost Beijing, 1987,” photo ba Jiri Tondl, licensed under Creative Commons 4.0

In 2020, China’s total fertility rate (TFR) declined to 1.3 births per woman, a staggeringly low number that only continues to fall in comparison to the  2.1 necessary to maintain population replacement. Beginning in the 1970s, the Chinese government began to advise its population to have fewer children, as the government feared their rapidly rising population was unsustainable and would lead to another famine. By 1980, the government had implemented a strict policy forcing Chinese families to have only one child. Though exceptions were made for some rural families and ethinic minorities, this policy was otherwise strictly upheld. China incentivized having one child and punished those who disobeyed. The one-child policy was successful in stifling what seemed like an unsustainable population boom, reducing the number of births per a thousand people from 18 in 1980 to 12 twenty years later, a number which only continues to fall. The Chinese Communist Party claimed success having seen great economic growth in this period and achieving their goal in slowing the population growth. However, within the last two decades the consequences of the policy have come to the forefront and the projected ramifications are even more dire. In response to this impending crisis, the CCP replaced the policy with an allowance for two children in 2016 and even expanded the allowance to three this year. However, even these policy changes have failed to reverse the declining birth rate. Should a reversal not occur soon, some of the greatest effects that China faces today include its aging population, diminishing workforce, and gender imbalance.

Between 1982 and 2010, the share of the Chinese population aged 14 and under decreased by 17 percent. Workers aged 45 and over represented 29 percent of the nation's labor force in 2002 and increased to a staggering 39 percent only 8 years later. China’s massive labor force has been pivotal in its incredible economic growth and cheap labor costs have allowed their production to occur at a cheaper and faster rate than any competitor. Before 1970, the Chinese tradition was to have as many children as possible, as this benefited family survival and led to economic growth. However, with a declining birth rate and an aging population, China will struggle to have enough laborers to support its continually expanding and booming economy. World Bank data shows China's labor force began to decrease in 2017 and since 2019 the rate of decline has hastened exponentially. Economic growth in China has slowed in recent years and this was undoubtedly partly due to their shrinking labor force. Consequently, in the near future, China will struggle to maintain the GDP growth rate they have boasted in past decades and will have to turn to solutions such as immigrant labor to boost productivity. 

Having an older population does not only decrease the number of workers available, but it also leads to far greater costs to social services. Chinese society already faces an unprecedented task in providing health care, among other services, to a massive elderly population. As the proportion of older individuals continues to increase, the challenges in confronting this issue will only worsen. The one-child policy has exacerbated the demographic changes the Chinese population sees today and further ensured that the growing burden of caring for the elderly falls on an increasingly smaller number of younger family members. This expanding responsibility has forcibly increased the government’s role in taking up the expensive costs of elder care.

In 2020, there were 34.9 million more men than women in China. This discrepancy can largely be attributed to historical prejudices that have led Chinese families to favor baby boys over girls, prejudice that has been exacerbated by the one child policy. These biases are particularly prevalent in rural communities where boys were traditionally considered more useful when helping run the farm and earn money. The devastating consequences of these attitudes have included gender selective abortion, the abandonment of infant girls for adoption, or even infanticide. China’s gender imbalance today threatens the future of the nation greatly. The number of men entering marriage age eclipses the number of women by an average of 1.2 million per year and Chinese men are already struggling to find wives and partners to bear children with. Furthermore, a rising number of single males has led to increased incidence of violent crime in China. 

Although China has reversed the one child policy, the birth rate has continued to decline and these consequences are expected to worsen. The problem is that China has changed, partly due to the one child policy but also through economic growth. Women do not want to have many children anymore, if any. Women have become an integral part of the professional workforce in China, and are no longer simply caregivers. Nonetheless, when a child is born the woman is still expected to leave work to care for the child. Women who already face challenges to achieve a high professional status are not willing to jeopardize their career in order to raise a child. The cost of living in China has also increased as millions have moved to urban areas, which means raising children has become far more expensive. Societal changes have meant it is no longer economically viable to have multiple children. 

Restoring China’s birth rate is a matter of paramount importance to the Chinese Communist Party. Given the fear and unease families have felt for decades around having multiple children, the only solution seems to be for the government to scrap all policy on birth control. In fact, the government would benefit from going further by, incentivizing child bearing, particularly for women. Whether ensuring that a woman's job status is not affected by a pregnancy or altering the social expectation for women to bear the responsibility of infant care, these policies would need to effect serious change in the mentality of the Chinese public. The 2020 Chinese census found that 12 million children were born in 2020, the lowest number since the 1960s. While the situation is not yet dire, a lack of decisive action will lead to serious problems for the country within the next couple decades.