Ukraine War Consequences for EU Nations

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On February 24th, 2022, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine. As a result, thousands of people are dead, towns have been bombed to rubble, and around 13 million people have been displaced and forced to flee from Ukraine. The causes of this attack are still debated, but the clinching factor was Ukraine’s intentions to join NATO against the wishes of its neighbor Russia. Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, most countries in the Iron Curtain have shifted under the influence of Western organizations, such as NATO or the European Union. Putin has seen the expansion of NATO’s influence as dangerous, as each Eastern Europe country added to its ranks narrowed the organization’s proximity to Russia’s own borders. Putin has deemed this a grave threat to Russia’s security, and the addition of Ukraine to NATO would only worsen matters as it shares a border directly with Russia. 

Under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians from discrimination and attacks perpetrated by the Ukrainian government, Russia launched this attack after Ukraine announced it would apply for NATO membership, something Russia explicitly claimed it would oppose. Internationally, the United States announced it was freezing trillions of dollars in Russian assets, including funds belonging to Russian elites and their families. Other sanctions imposed by European governments have crippled Russian banks and limited its economy. However, Russia has the power to respond, and has targeted the United States and European countries in the vital energy sector. As Russia is the largest supplier of gas to the European Union, cutting off its supply has severely affected Europe, including some of its greatest international actors, like Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. These countries depend on Russian gas exports, and its absence has had dear consequences for both their positions both domestically and internationally.

In 2021, Europe fulfilled 40 percent of its gas needs by pipeline from Russia. After the Ukraine War began and Russia was subjected to severe sanctions, it decided to reply with some economic power moves of its own. There is one pipeline named Nord Stream 1, which carries gas from Russia to Germany; its twin Nord Stream 2’s development was halted by Germany in light of the Ukraine invasion. In June 2022, Russia cut gas deliveries through the pipeline by 75%, from 170m cubic metres of gas a day to roughly 40m cubic metres. In July, the pipeline was shut down for 10 days. When it reopened, only 20m cubic metres were released. In August, the pipeline was shut down and hasn’t been reopened since. Overall, Russia has cut its supply of gas to Europe by 88%, making gas prices skyrocket in many EU countries and the United Kingdom. 

France is preparing for the largest energy conservation program since the crisis in the 1970s. President Macron’s government has spent over 26 billion euros to keep its citizens’ gas and electricity bills from soaring. This measure, however, hasn’t stopped the gas crisis from dominating the country, with fuel shortages leading to queues outside gas stations and tensions running high in lower income neighborhoods. The natural gas prices were capped in 2021 and kept from rising above 4%, however the French government has decided to gradually increase the cap price. These new gas caps have become the new rallying cry of critics against Macron’s government, claiming this policy will only benefit the wealthy and perpetuate existing inequality. Residents in the richest parts of the French capital and adjoining suburbs consume five times more heating, electricity and gas per capita than residents of poorer neighborhoods. For them, a cap in gas prices will be beneficial, while increasing gas prices will severely affect less fortunate regions. 

Many European countries are turning to nuclear energy as an alternative option, but for France, this does not seem like a viable solution. In recent years, the French nuclear industry has had to shut down 32 of 56 reactors due to cracks and corrosions in the facilities. In addition, severe drought has limited the amount of hydroelectric power the country can produce. Already, temperatures have been lowered in classrooms and swimming pools have been closed. In some regions, it has been reported that ambulances are running out of fuel. The future looks bleak, with France facing a harsh winter, growing discontent, and possible nationwide blackouts due to a lack of energy resources. 

The situation in France is mirrored in many other countries in the European Union, such as Germany and the United Kingdom. In response to the looming energy crisis, the EU agreed to mandate a reduction in electricity consumption by at least 5% during peak price hours. Most of the energy conservation effort will be targeted towards consumer behavior, meaning that households will be asked to reduce the temperature in their homes, businesses will be forced to reduce energy consuming activities like manufacturing steel or fertilizer, and new working hours may be put in effect. European governments have attempted to combat the shortage of gas by purchasing liquefied natural gas or LNG from the United States or Qatar, but this alternative is costly, with lengthy transportation. Since the war began, Norway has become Europe's largest gas provider, and has profited greatly from the new demand. However, while the EU has decided on solidarity taxes to support the energy industry, Norway is not a member of the EU, and therefore is not tied to any gas prices cap, leading to disagreements. While an effort has been made to turn towards renewable energy, especially nuclear energy, it is unlikely that sufficient advances would be made in time for the winter. 

The current energy situation in Europe looks bleak, and even with proposed solutions by each country's government and the EU, this winter will be difficult and testing, with blackouts expected and families having difficulty heating their homes. The current plan put forth by the European Union requires all countries to cut 10% of it’s energy usage and a mandatory 5% reduction during peak hours. It seems that no matter how much money the government invests in a relief program, unless a new energy source of similar efficiency and price is found quickly, the only way forward is with sizable cuts in energy consumption by the average population and the growing price of gas across Europe.