What’s going on in Israel-Palestine, and what is the international community going to do about it?
Map of the 1947 UN Partition plan, source: https://israeled.org/u-n-special-committee-on-palestine-formed/
On December 30th, 2022, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution calling on the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to give its opinion on the legal implications of Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories. Shortly after, the new Israeli national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, visited Temple Mount in Occupied East Jerusalem, triggering a UN Security Council meeting where all national delegates urged both Israeli and Palestinian authorities to “exercise restraint,” “uphold the status-quo,” and preserve the “possibility of a two-state solution.” In response, the new Israeli government, the most “right-wing” the nation has had to this day, called the General Assembly’s decision “illegitimate,” “despicable” and imposed sanctions on the Palestinian Authority (PA) as punishment, triggering even more international criticism.
This is the latest evolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which started nearly a century ago, and has become increasingly one-sided. Forbes reports that 5600 Palestinians and 250 Israelis died between 2008 and 2020 due to the conflict. It is one of the most globally controversial conflicts, with some describing Israel as an “occupier using modern military power to attack defenseless Palestinians.” In contrast, others see it as a “sovereign nation with the right and obligation to defend itself from terrorists intent on killing civilians.” As both sides seem incapable of coming to an agreement in this zero-sum conflict, where every territorial gain represents a loss for the other party, can we look to the international community to provide a peaceful solution and ensure the security of individuals in the disputed territories?
Dr. Brendan Szendro, Faculty Lecturer at McGill, generously provided his unique insight on Israel’s new government, the implications of its governance, and much more. He explains that decades of colonialism and wars of nationalism, involving most Middle-Eastern countries and some Western nations, defined the disputed territories’ borders. Furthermore, he points out that “the current generation of leaders want to keep [the conflict] going long enough for them to win the conflict, although the conflict is unwinnable.”
The Islamist party Hamas took over Gaza in 2007 after it beat secular Fatah in the 2006 legislative elections, provoking the establishment of an Israeli (and later also Egyptian) land, water, and air blockade, still in place today. Reporting on the humanitarian impact of this long-term blockade, Unicef stated that 1.3 out of 2.1 million (62%) Palestinians living in Gaza require food assistance. The latest eruption of violence took place in May 2021 with Hamas launching “unguided” 4360 missiles toward Israeli cities, in what Human Rights Watch described as “apparent war crimes,” killing 12 civilians in Israel. It is also a repressive authority that routinely targets and tortures suspected Fatah or Israeli collaborators living in Gaza, in what “may amount to [crimes] against humanity” according to HRW.
Meanwhile, Fatah and the PA are presided by Mahmoud Abbas, who was elected in 2005 for a four-year term and has refused to host elections since. In 2021, Abbas postponed elections indefinitely, accusing Israel of not allowing Palestinians of East Jerusalem to participate. However, critics suggested he did so to avoid losing power to Hamas, with his former allies splintering “into competing lists of candidates”. In terms of self-determination, Dr. Szendro explains that Palestinians living in the West Bank “effectively live under military rule”, that they “have no rights nor representation”. They are also subject to “widespread abuse and deadly attacks” from Israel’s security forces, Israeli settlers and from the PA’s security forces, who arrest, torture, and sometimes kill political opponents.
What is Israel’s role in all of this? Our interviewee Dr. Szendro explains that “Israelis help prop up Hamas and the PA to prevent more extreme groups from getting into power- like the Islamic Jihad in Gaza and Hamas itself in the West Bank,” using a “divide and rule tactic” that keeps Israel’s weakest opponents in power.
Looking at Israeli politics, Dr. Szendro reveals that Israel is “one of the most divided wealthy democratic societies on earth”, where large party-coalitions are necessary for stable governance. Five elections were held in the last three years, and despite the last governmental coalition’s attempt to “overcome political fractionalization [...] through [its] common desire to oust Netanyahu from power,” it failed.
Mr. Netanyahu's new government is a coalition of right-wing, far-right and ultra-orthodox parties. It includes the anti-arab Kahanist party Otzma Yehudit, as well as the anti-LGBTQ-focused party Noam Party, who both form the new Religious Zionist Party (RZP). The RZP is associated with West Bank Israeli settlements, which are illegal under international law. The Council of Foreign Relations concludes that the new Israeli government is passing policies that “could severely hinder relations with Palestinians, undermine Israel’s liberal democracy, and challenge Israel’s ties with its Arab neighbors, the US and Europe.”
Dr. Szendro echoes that conclusion, explaining that the “new Netanyahu government has promised to open all areas of the West Bank (where most Jewish Holy sites are located) to settlement,” calling it “creeping” annexation. He explains that the RZP has proposed to fill Israel’s political ambiguities (such as Israel's role in the West Bank) with religion and warns that the government will pass an override clause. He warns that the Supreme Court will no longer have the right to judicial review and that the government’s leader could act unilaterally without any check on his authority, raising concerns about Netanyahu consolidating a very undemocratic type of authority.
Given the potential for escalation, should the international community intervene?
Looking at economic intervention, Dr. Szendro answers that the ICJ lacks enforcement power and that the best hope for economic pressure could come from the US. Indeed, the US provides “more foreign aid to Israel than to any other country.” He believes that if Jewish Americans, increasingly alienated by Israel’s view of Judaism as a system of government, turned their support the other way, there would be calls to reduce aid to Israel or make particular aid items conditional. However, he points out that “international rulings against Israel have contributed to a shift of its population to the right of the political sphere”, illustrating the potentially counterproductive effect of economic sanctions. Still, he states that this option is very likely in the next 20 to 30 years.
If war crimes and crimes against humanity are allegedly–according to human rights organizations–being perpetuated by all warring parties, should the UN send in the peacekeepers? Our interviewee explains that this option would only be considered if the conflict spirals out and becomes civil-war-like, which he says is highly unlikely in the near future.
Would it be better for no international action to take place? Political scientists have provided evidence that civil wars are prolonged by the intervention of states who have their own agenda for the conflict, so intervention could be seen as feeding the conflict and thus perpetuating it. Also, Dr. Szendro believes that while economic intervention would not threaten Israel’s existence as a state, it would worsen the quality of life, push Israelis to the right and put both Israelis and Palestinians at risk.
As former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan famously said in 2005: “The human family will not enjoy development without security, will not enjoy security without development, and will not enjoy either without respect for human rights.” Given that 2022 was “the deadliest year for Palestinians in the West Bank since 2005,” and that international action against Israel will potentially escalate the situation, it seems that a UN peacebuilding program, focused on human security and development, consented to by Israel and Palestine, would be best. Unfortunately, this seems unlikely in the near future, given Palestine’s missing UN state membership, and Israel’s dangerous political evolution.