The Taiwanese Independence Stalemate

Image By: The New York Times

The debate over Taiwanese independence is not new. However, it has grown in importance on the international stage over recent years due to heightened Chinese-Taiwanese tensions. Many advocates, both for and against the state’s independence, argue that the case is clear-cut. But, when looking back through history, it becomes clear this reasoning diverges from reality.

Prior to 1895, China ruled the territory of Taiwan for two centuries. Then, the Qing Dynasty signed the Treaty of Shimonoseki with Japan, ceding the territory to them. Japan lost Taiwan after World War II, and the Republic of China (ROC) was founded shortly after. Due to the instability of the Taiwanese state at the time, the Nationalists of the ROC found themselves at odds with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), eventually breaking out into civil war. The ROC was successful in maintaining their rule over Taiwan. However, no peace treaty was ever signed. It is notable that since then, Taiwan and China have been ruled by separate governments. In 1996, Taiwan held its first presidential election in which the Kuomintang Party (KMT) won power. Throughout all this time, though, the disagreement between China and Taiwan over Taiwan’s independence has persisted, with the dialogue opening up as other countries around the world have chimed in with their stances on the issue.

After Japan surrendered their rule of Taiwan, the ROC took power. However, many people in China did not, and still do not, view the ROC as a legitimate government. Throughout the 20th century, this was largely due to the fact that the majority of China’s citizens lived on mainland China at the time, with a much smaller percentage residing in Taiwan. For this reason, most people viewed the CCP as the only legitimate power and contended that they should rule Taiwan, as opposed to establishing a separate governing body. This has solidified China’s support for the “One-China” policy, which asserts that Taiwan and China should be ruled by a single government. In an effort to delegitimize the ROC’s rule, proponents of a One-China also argue that it does not have the manpower to take over the CCP in mainland China. Were a war to ever break out between the two states, Taiwan would not be able to defend itself without assistance. 

In 1912, the ROC was established as the Chinese government, and nations around the world voiced their support for Taiwan’s independence. This resulted in Taiwan briefly joining the United Nations (UN). However, after outcry from China, many retracted their support and began to back the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which had come into power on the mainland. Taiwan was then expelled, as one of the qualifications for nationhood by the UN is that all countries on its Security Council must approve its application. Due to China’s permanent position on the council, Taiwan has been unable to rejoin the UN in the years since. Some countries that currently do not recognize Taiwanese independence are Russia, Japan, the UK, and the US (though the US did previously recognize its sovereignty until 1979 before switching to its policy of maintaining the status quo in East Asia and preventing conflict), among others. Potential reasons for these countries to support the PRC are the desire to avoid war and potential harm to trade relations, though, arguably, siding with the PRC goes against the values of self-governance under international law (free from the interference of foreign bodies) many of these countries preach.

On the other side of the debate, there has been growing support for Taiwanese independence in recent years. The state has a growing democracy and Taiwanese identity is increasingly opposed to being incorporated into a Chinese one. Taiwan also meets many qualifications for nationhood as outlined by the UN. For example, its settled population, defined territory, and independent government all tick boxes on the UN’s checklist. However, as previously noted, China’s position on the Security Council has resulted in the UN adopting a One-China policy and refusing Taiwan’s application to the UN, preventing its global recognition as a country. Moreover, Taiwan is known to have good relations with many other countries. Despite not formally recognizing Taiwan’s sovereignty, the US has supplied the state with arms before, which resulted in Chinese retaliation through missile tests. Members of the British government have even referred to Taiwan as a country due to belief in the right to self-determination. In terms of countries that formally recognize Taiwan’s independence, the number is slight. Only 13 countries currently do. Among these are Belize, Guatemala, Paraguay, and the Vatican City. It is possible that some of these countries sympathize with Taiwan’s struggle for international recognition of its independence, as they have their own histories of fighting for theirs. Notably, some members of the UN also recognize Taiwan as a state, meaning it is self-governing, but not equivalent to a country.

Thus, the conflict currently sits in a stalemate. China likely won’t make a move on Taiwan for fear of retaliation from countries that back its independence as well as countries like the US and the UK that have good relations with Taiwan. Alternatively, Taiwan cannot be sure that it has firm support from allies if China were to attack, as many still don’t formally recognize its sovereignty, fearing strained relations with China if they were to object. The complexity of this situation begs many questions: What qualifies a country? And what cost is the West willing to pay to maintain the status quo in East Asia for fear of Chinese retribution?