The Future of Taiwan Is Unfolding: The Implications of the 2024 Presidential Election

Image By: France 24

Taiwan’s recent presidential election has, and will, lead to changes in the current structures that define international reactions. Their history as an independent state has had a long and winding route, beginning with its discovery by a Chinese emperor in AD 239. Following a brief era of existing as a Dutch colony, Taiwan was once again taken up by China during the Qing dynasty before becoming ceded to Japan after the first Sino-Japanese War. Even prior to the present-day conflict, Taiwan has exhibited a history of instability, which is prevalent in  recognizing the motivations behind China’s claim to the country today. At the end of World War II, Japan surrendered the territory back to China where it was officially recognized and occupied by the Republic of China (ROC). In the wake of the Chinese Civil War, through a prolonged armed conflict between the then-leading Kuomintang and the Chinese Communist Party, a widespread conflict ensued from 1946 onwards. The formation of a puppet government, controlled by the Japanese and partially led by politician Wang Jingwei, only widened the deep  tensions between these domestic political divisions, culminating in the overthrowing of Chiang Kai-shek’s troops by the Communist army and their leader Mao Zedong. 

Chiang, the Nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) government, as well as his supporters relocated to Taiwan in 1949 when the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was established that same year. After thirty years of dictatorship under Chiang’s leadership, Taiwan transitioned into democratic practices, despite living under a regime similar to that imposed by the Chinese Communist Party: a life under surveillance from the government, extreme censorship laws, with propaganda running rampant. Understanding the context of Taiwan’s independence and freedom, implemented fully within the past forty years, gives a more complete perspective on how the country’s identity is rooted in its strong opposition to being absorbed by the Chinese state. 

Following this rough separation between the people of Taiwan and those of China, obvious tensions have existed between the two governments, dominated by China’s desire to claim Taiwan once more. China, leading as one of the most powerful forces in today’s global political sphere, has exerted pressure on Taiwan to accept their offers of a “peaceful reunification,” through the use of soft power and sponsored messaging, as well as threats. Having Taiwan’s democratic government structure in close proximity to the highly regulated and controlled lives of the Chinese people endangers China’s political goals, as they perceive it, and have ushered plans towards forming a singular entity. 

Of the political parties that were running in this year’s election, there was the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Joining into election season, DPP was the incumbent party who previously held Tsai Ing-wen as its president, but now selected Lai Ching-te as the current nominee. Since 2016, the DPP has been the major governing party of Taiwan, and yet, the citizens exhibited great contestation against the party. While the international effects of Taiwan’s election will prove to shift economic relations mainly between the world superpowers, the U.S. and China, internal instability proved to be rampant this time around. Due to factors such as incumbency fatigue and a general disdain for the way that they dealt with domestic issues such as housing, jobs, and the economy, the widespread population were not in favor of the DPP. Although Lai gained the seat of presidency, the party overall lost control of parliament to KMT, creating a divided government, and preventing Lai from freely enabling policy decisions without general consensus. Despite the implications of DPP’s continued rule on the international scene, internal struggles seem equally, if not more pertinent, to the lives of the Taiwanese people for years to come. 

One of the main selling points of the DPP, and Lai’s campaign, was to preserve Taiwanese sovereignty from China. Many citizens showed concerns towards the development of Taiwanese-Chinese relations, some supporters of Lai claiming that, “He is an experienced political figure, and I believe he will not deliberately provoke China, but can handle the relationship with it cautiously.” In the aftermath of this election, Lai is bound to face immediate and tenuous pressure from China, despite continuing Tsai Ing-wen’s legacy of improving Taiwanese military defences, forming stronger bonds with other democratic powers like the United States, and carefully managing a distance from China. The government will have to face conflict from within and outside its borders, especially considering that the DPP did not represent mainstream opinion on the island, meaning that in order to govern, there will need to be collaboration with the other parties. 

In terms of Taiwan’s presence and impact globally, the main two contenders in this discussion are the U.S. and China. Following Lai’s acquisition of the presidential title, Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, congratulated the country’s efforts in a press statement saying that, “We also congratulate the Taiwan people for once again demonstrating the strength of their robust democratic system and electoral process.” Despite all the support the U.S. has shown, by backing its security and supporting its government since the 1950s, Washington still claims to be against the independence of Taiwan in order to stay on good terms with China. Regardless, analysts in the U.S. have expressed their worry for the outcome of this presidency. If relations between China and Taiwan worsen even more, resulting in war, not only will the island experience a humanitarian crisis for the approximately 23 million inhabitants, but the global economy will collapse due to the importance of the Taiwan Strait for international trade.